It’s A Big Day: United States Ends Travel Bans, Requires Vaccination

Funny that you mention Iceland, with the chief epidemiologist there being in complete disagreement with your claims:

"What has happened in the past two to three weeks is that the Delta variant has taken over all other variants in Iceland. And it has come to light that vaccinated individuals can contract it relatively easily and spread infection. Sequencing has shown us that the origin of most domestic infections can be traced to group events such as clubbing in downtown Reykjavík or group trips abroad."

How long is someone with COVID contagious? Let's ask the CDC: "the statistically estimated likelihood of recovering replication-competent virus approaches zero by 10 days or more than three days after recovery.” So it's pretty safe to say that after nine days you are no longer contagious. A vaccinated person clears the virus a bit faster. Since >99% of virus is found within a period of a couple of days during which there is no difference between vaccinated and unvaccinated people in viral load (Singapore study: greater viral load in vaccinated people, but unlikely to be significant). No, I don't think that vaccinated and unvaccinated people contribute equally to transmission. Most likely, it is vaccinated people who contribute more. They are less likely to become symptomatic, so they are less likely to show "sickness behaviour" (stay in bed) and they are less likely to be avoided by others due to their lack of symptoms (no disgust response). In other words: vaccination messes with our behavioural immune system on both sides of the equation. Since test requirements generally only apply to unvaccinated people, someone who is vaccinated is also less likely to be identified by a test. Also worth considering: a vaccinated person can still catch COVID. This chance is much higher than the chance of someone who has recovered from COVID to get reinfected, posing much less of a risk to others. Science Magazine: "the risk of developing symptomatic COVID-19 was 27 times higher among the vaccinated, and the risk of hospitalization eight times higher."

I find it a bit silly to still pretend that vaccination reduces transmission, when even the CDC director said back in July: "Today, some of those data were published in CDC’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR), demonstrating that Delta infection resulted in similarly high SARS-CoV-2 viral loads in vaccinated and unvaccinated people. High viral loads suggest an increased risk of transmission and raised concern that, unlike with other variants, vaccinated people infected with Delta can transmit the virus." Holding on to this lie any longer is likely to damage trust in all vaccines, in the long term.

On September 25, 2021 (most current date on Our World in Data), Iceland performs 4.15 test/1,000 inhabitants with 94.86/million testing positive. On September 25, 2020, these numbers were 7.42/1,000 and 137.72/million. So your claim that incidence remaining high is sufficiently explained by more testing isn't supported by the numbers. If that were the case, the present rate would have to be even lower.

I thought we were discussing whether vaccines prevent transmission, not risk of death, but OK, let's switch the subject. My risk of catching and dying from COVID in the next 90 days is 0.0038% according to the University of Oxford's risk assessment tool QCOVID. What you label as "likely", I label as "unlikely". For me, "likely" is a >50% chance but when it comes to the risk of dying, I would obviously try to avoid events that are very unlikely. After all, even in Russian Roulette, the odds are very much in your favour and I wouldn't want to play. People differ in what risks they are willing to accept. Maybe if I were much older, morbidly obese or suffering from other conditions. I won't deny that vaccination reduces your risk of dying from COVID (although it didn't reduce overall mortality in the follow-up to the Pfizer trial). At the same time, I find it silly to deny that this risk is extremely stratified by age and co-morbidities.

In Germany, in the age group 40-49, there are presently 213 people with COVID in intensive care. That constitutes less than 1% of ICU occupancy. Even if they were all unvaccinated, I fail to see how exactly they would be "clogging up" hospitals.

If your personal risk assessment determines that vaccination is the best path, that's what you should do. I don't think it is justified to become all self-congratulatory and equate vaccination with being responsible (it would be different with the measles vaccine, though). First and foremost, vaccination against COVID is in your own interest (nothing wrong with that). Given that you can still transmit but are less likely to protect others by being tested and less likely to develop symptoms, protection by getting tested would be much more effective. After all, testing prevents transmission and vaccination doesn't.